Stop trading Fed headlines. Start trading Fed credibility.
Every month, we score FOMC officials on forecast accuracy, communication consistency, and whether markets actually follow their guidance. The gap between what they say and what the data shows is the trade.
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Published by The Conscient Group.
FED CREDIBILITY SCOREBOARD
LIVEJerome Powell (Chair)
DOVISH PIVOT — RATES ON HOLD
7.1
credibility
Christopher Waller
HAWKISH — DATA DEPENDENT
8.4
credibility
Austan Goolsbee (Chicago)
DOVISH — LABOR WATCH
7.8
credibility
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis)
HAWKISH — INFLATION STICKY
6.9
credibility
+ 12 MORE OFFICIALS
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The Fed Credibility Gap
Every dot plot, speech, and press conference scored against actual policy outcomes and economic reality.
“We are committed to restoring price stability. Our tools are working.”
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair
FOMC Press Conference, December 2025
VERDICT: CREDIBILITY STRESS — Actions slower than guidance implied
Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1, BLS CPI Release Feb 2026
Christopher Waller
Fed Board speech, November 2025
“If the data continues to cooperate, I could see cuts beginning as early as Q1 2026.”
Voted HOLD at January and March 2026 FOMC. No dissent filed.
VERDICT: PARTIALLY ALIGNED — Data conditions didn't fully cooperate
Market vs. Fed Dot Plot
FOMC SEP, December 2025
“Median projection: 1 rate cut in 2026” — Fed Dot Plot Dec 2025
CME FedWatch pricing 3 cuts by December 2026. 2-year Treasury yielding 3.89% — 75bps below Fed funds rate.
VERDICT: MARKET DIVERGENCE — Biggest say vs. do gap is between Fed and market
These are 3 verified comparisons from this month's briefing. We score 19 FOMC officials every month.
The RE Convergence 30
30 real estate capital allocators. Credibility-scored by transaction accuracy. When Tier 1 allocators converge on the same sector thesis, capital follows.
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What You Get Every Month
A structured Fed credibility briefing. Not commentary. Not opinions. Policy data and forecast accuracy.
Fed Credibility Report — Monthly Briefing
Month of March 2026 · The Conscient Group
THIS MONTH'S TOP SIGNAL
Fed Credibility Stress: Markets are pricing 3 cuts; Fed dot plot shows 1. The 2-year/Fed funds gap is the widest since pre-pivot 2023 — someone is wrong.
Powell 7.1 (guidance slippage), Waller 8.4 (data-consistent), Goolsbee 7.8, Kashkari 6.9 (over-hawkish).
Q4 2025 statements vs. Q1 2026 FOMC decisions. 3 officials diverged from stated path.
5 hawks, 4 doves, 3 swing votes. Swing votes: Goolsbee, Kugler, Bowman.
2-year Treasury implying 3 cuts. Dot plot: 1. Historical record: markets usually win.
PCE 2.8%, unemployment 4.2%, GDP 2.1% — data mixed, not clearly cut-supportive.
If inflation re-accelerates above 3%, Fed credibility crisis scenario detailed.
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